¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NNW winds at 10 knots over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and all of the new model forecasts show the background flow will continue to rapidly diminish this morning, with only light onshore breezes developing this afternoon. Wednesday looks to be another down day as a weak surface low pressure system moves slowly southeastward over the Sea of Cortez and our background flow becomes westerly. Models are in good agreement that as the low moves eastward on Thursday, our winds will become northwest then north, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a windy afternoon. Strong surface high pressure over the interior west of the U.S. is then forecast to build rapidly southeastward into the 4-corners region on Friday, with norte conditions developing here. The norte should slowly subside on Friday, but long-range model forecasts show a relatively tight surface pressure gradient remaining over BCS through the upcoming weekend and into next week, with ample north background flow.
¡Buenos dias! Wind-measuring satellite passes missed our portion of the Sea of Cortez last evening, but all of the most recent model forecasts show solid north background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops showed another sunny day ahead for BCS, so we will likely see our local thermal give us an added boost. North flow will rapidly subside tonight as a strong mid to upper-level storm system drops down over the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday. The surface reflection of this system here will be to create a very weak pressure gradient and we will likely only see a light onshore breeze on Tuesday. Broad-scale westerly flow around the low on Wednesday will produce light and variable winds here in the lee of the Cacachilas Mountains, with west to northwest winds offshore. Some of the forecast models are now suggesting a return of north flow on Thursday, but confidence is relatively low at this point. Models are in good agreement that surface high pressure centered near the Canadian border on Thursday will move rapidly south…southeastward into the southwestern U.S. on Friday, dramatically tightening the surface pressure gradient here. Low-end norte conditions are possible on Friday into Saturday, with solid north flow lasting through next weekend.
Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Wednesday…Mostly sunny. Light and variable winds.
Thursday…Sunny. Northwest to north wind 14-16 mph.
¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured light and variable winds across the southern Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, but it showed the leading edge of a new push of north flow had made it as far south as Mulege. Model forecasts agree that north background flow will increase here this morning, and with sunny skies expected, we will likely see a windy afternoon. Monday looks to be another windy day, as solid north flow and lots of sunshine continue. Things will change significantly on Tuesday as a strong mid to upper-level low pressure system dives into the Baja Peninsula, then tracks slowly eastward over our region on Wednesday. The large scale flow around this system will produce west background flow in our area, so we will likely see a couple of down days Tuesday and Wednesday. As the system moves eastward on Thursday, surface high pressure will begin to build back into the Baja Peninsula, but there still may be a significant west component to the wind. Model forecasts are in good agreement that solid north flow will return on Friday and continue into Saturday.
¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 5 to 10 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez near Cerralvo, and the most recent model forecasts all show the background north flow will continue to decrease today, with only light onshore breezes expected this afternoon. Models indicate that surface high pressure will quickly build back into BCS on Sunday, with solid north flow returning. Sunny skies are also expected on Sunday, so we will see our local thermal in fine form as well. Monday will be much the same, with ample north background flow continuing and lots of sunshine triggering another good thermal boost. Tuesday will likely be a transition day, as the large-scale pattern begins a major shift and a very strong mid and upper-level system begins diving into the southwestern U.S. At this point it looks like there may be just enough north background flow lingering into Tuesday…and enough sunshine…to help trigger our wind machine one more time. There has been an encouraging shift in the latest model forecasts, as the strong mid and upper-level low that was previously forecast to cut off and stall over or just west of BCS into next weekend is now forecast to only linger in our area Wednesday and Thursday, then move off to the east on Friday. This will allow surface high pressure to again build into the Baja Peninsula on Friday with a return of solid north flow. While it is good news with regard to the wind, it looks like any substantial rain with this system will occur far to our east over the mainland.
¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured 10-15 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the most recent forecast model runs show similar background flow continuing today. Early morning infrared satellite loops showed some mid-level cloud cover just to our east, but these should thin later this morning and we will likely see another good thermal boost this afternoon. Models still show a surface low pressure system rapidly moving from Idaho tonight into northern New Mexico on Saturday, with a trailing trough of low pressure forming over the southwestern U.S. This will weaken the surface pressure gradient over BCS on Saturday, with the background flow becoming light and only a light onshore breeze developing during the afternoon. As the storm system continues to deepen and move eastward on Sunday, surface high pressure will build back into the Baja Peninsula, with solid north flow returning. Ample north flow will likely continue through Monday, and with sunny skies again expected, we should see another windy afternoon. Things will begin to change as the new forecast model runs are in better agreement that a deep mid to upper-level low will dive southward into the northern Baja Peninsula on Tuesday, then become cut off from the main west to east flow and linger over our region for several days. This is a scenario that usually brings an extended period of light winds to our area, and at this point it looks like we could have light winds from Tuesday into next weekend.
¡Buenos dias! A couple of ASCAT passes last night measured 15 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and the overnight model forecasts show similar wind speeds lasting through today. Infrared satellite loops indicated only some thin, high clouds in our region early this morning, so we should see a significant thermal boost this afternoon. The surface high centered far to our north that is responsible for this latest surge of north flow will weaken a bit tomorrow, but models show ample north flow should continue and with sunny skies expected, we will likely see another windy afternoon. A very fast-moving storm system will race from Idaho on Friday night southeastward into the Texas panhandle by late Saturday, creating a weak trough of low pressure over the southwestern U.S. with our winds becoming light. Model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will quickly build back into the interior west of the U.S. on Sunday and push a fresh surge of north flow into the Sea of Cortez. Solid north flow will likely continue through Monday, then the global models begin to differ dramatically with regard to the weather pattern over our region as we move into the middle of next week (see nerd note below).
Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
Tuesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
Wednesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Nerd Note: The long-range global model forecasts show very different scenarios for our area by the middle of next week and moving into the following weekend. Both of the primary global models (GFS and ECMWF) show a strong trough forming in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, but the locations differ significantly (see graphics below). The GFS has the system near BCS, while the ECMWF has a stronger, closed low to our west. If the ECMWF solution verifies, significant moisture from the deep tropics would be drawn northeastward around the low to our west and bring showers and even thunderstorms to our area from Thursday into the following weekend. If the GFS is correct, we would see north flow continuing through much of next week with no rain. It’s interesting to note that an experimental artificial intelligence model run by the ECMWF shows the system forming to our west with significant rain here from Thursday into the following weekend.
¡Buenos dias! There were no wind-measuring satellite passes last night, but all of the most recent model forecasts show increasing north flow today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning did show some thin, high clouds in our region, but we should see ample sun as well today and a good thermal boost. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure will remain anchored over the interior west of the U.S. Models continue to indicate that a surface trough of low pressure will form over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday, with our winds becoming significantly lighter. Pacific high pressure is then forecast to rapidly build back into the western U.S. on Sunday and send a new pulse of north flow into the southern Sea of Cortez. Ample north background flow should last through Monday, then our winds may become light as a major pattern shift may bring unsettled weather to the Baja Peninsula later next week.
Buenos dias! Yesterday was one of those days where the gradient of windspeed from north to south was substantial (see nerd note below), and today may see a similar situation. While a pass by the Oceansat satellite last evening measured light and variable winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, all of the latest numerical model forecasts show background north flow returning this afternoon and reaching velocities right at the lower threshold that often will trigger a go/no go day. While confidence is low, there is a fair chance that some of us, particularly the northern beaches, will see kiteable winds this afternoon. Surface high pressure will build into the interior west of the U.S. on Wednesday and bring a fresh surge of north wind to BCS. Model forecasts are in good agreement that solid north background flow should continue through Friday, then become light on Saturday as the surface pressure gradient over BCS becomes light. The break should be a short one, as the latest long-range model forecasts now indicate Pacific high pressure will again build into the western U.S. on Sunday, with north flow increasing and lasting through at least Monday.
Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph (?)…especially north beaches.
Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
Nerd Note: I had a great opportunity yesterday to see the substantial variability in the wind speeds over the bay, as I was returning from a fishing trip from La Reina off the northern tip of Cerralvo around midday, then foiling along the northern beaches later in the afternoon. As our boat passed east of Punta Gorda, there was a sharp gradient of glassy seas to small whitecaps. This was likely where the Venturi effect was first accelerating the winds as the flow entered the constriction between Cerralvo and the Cacachilas Mountains to the west (see map). The gauge at the campground measured 12-14 mph sustained winds from around 1:30 until 3:30 (see graphic), while personal observations at Rasta Beach were closer to 16-18 mph, and an upwinder to Aguas Calientes was more like 18-20 mph. The maps shows how the constriction narrows to around 7 miles north of El Jalito, then widens again to around 12 miles at the south tip of Cerralvo. As the constriction widens, the Venturi effect weakens and winds decrease. On days where the background flow is very near the lower threshold for triggering our wind machine, I’ve noticed (confirmed by many others) that winds on the northern beaches are typically stronger, than to the south. It may be that when we have very marginal north flow, the Venturi effect is the dominant feature, while when the background flow is stronger, it reaches well into the southern bay and then is accelerated by our local thermal over the plains.
¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds around 10 knots just east of Cerralvo, but all of the latest forecast model runs show the ample north background flow we’ve enjoyed over the past several days will weaken substantially today. The majority of models show the north background flow falling to just below the threshold to fully activate our wind machine, but it will be close. Winds will become even lighter on Tuesday as a trough of low pressure forms over the southwestern U.S. and the surface pressure gradient here becomes very weak. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will build into the western U.S. on Wednesday and send a fresh surge of north wind down the Sea of Cortez. Solid north flow will likely last through Friday as the high remains nearly stationary far to our north and sunny to mostly sunny skies continue. Long-range models show the surface pressure gradient weakening on Saturday, with winds becoming light. Looking farther into next weekend and beyond, the long-range model forecasts disagree on timing, but surface high pressure will begin to build into the western U.S. and the north flow will increase here…possibly as early as Sunday.
¡Buenos dias! A late-evening pass by an Oceansat satellite measured 10-15 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. The surface high pressure system responsible for our latest stretch of north flow was centered over the 4-corners region of the U.S. this morning, and all of the latest model forecasts show this feature remaining intact today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed some thin, high clouds streaming into BCS from the north, but all of the models show skies clearing this afternoon so we should see a good thermal bump. The surface high to our north is forecast to weaken substantially on Monday, and north background flow will likely fall to very near or just below the threshold to fully trigger our wind machine. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, then surface high pressure centered over Idaho will build southeastward into western Colorado by Wednesday and send a new surge of north wind into the southern Sea of Cortez. Solid north flow is forecast to continue through Friday as the surface high will remain anchored over the interior west of the U.S. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that a trough of low pressure will quickly form over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday, with the surface pressure gradient weakening over BCS.
Today…Some morning high clouds, then sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
