Author: MasViento

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight last night showed the leading edge of the next surge of north wind had reached a point just south of Loreto, and local wind gauges detected that increasing north flow began around 3:30 this morning. Model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific will maintain a relatively tight surface pressure gradient over BCS over the next several days, with winds likely peaking on Tuesday with norte conditions expected. Some high clouds will stream in from the southwest on Monday and Tuesday, but we should also see plenty of sunshine to give us an added thermal boost. The norte will subside on Wednesday as a storm system moves into California and pushes the axis of the ridge of high pressure over the northern Baja Peninsula southward. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the storm system over the western U.S. will intensify on Thursday and cause our background flow to become more westerly. The break will be brief however, as long-range forecasts are in good agreement that a new surge of north flow will reach BCS on Friday, and as surface high pressure builds to our north on Saturday, norte conditions could again develop.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.

¡Buenos dias! Wow! Yesterday’s thermal blew my 16-20 mph forecast out of the water, as 10 minute sustained winds at the campground peaked at 24 mph. Satellite passes yesterday around noon measured background wind speeds coming into the channel of only 10 knots, so it was indeed a super thermal! It’ll be interesting to see if we continue to get very strong thermals this spring, as the desert is extremely dry this year and heats up very efficiently as compared to greener years. Model forecasts are all in excellent agreement that today will be a very different day, as surface low pressure over southwestern Arizona creates very light background flow over BCS, with only light onshore breezes expected here. The on/off button will switch back on tomorrow, as model forecasts show a ridge of high pressure building into the Baja Peninsula from the eastern Pacific, with a new surge of north background flow reaching our area. The surface ridge will oscillate north and south a bit over the next week, with winds increasing as it moves north and decreasing as it moves south closer to us. Some thin, high clouds will stream in from time to time this week, but at this point it looks like they shouldn’t be much of a factor. Tuesday looks to be the windiest day, with all of the model forecasts showing a tight surface pressure gradient over BCS, and with sunny skies expected, we could see one of the windiest days of the season. Winds may decrease on Thursday as the ridge moves closer to us and the background flow weakens, but long-range models show more solid north flow on the way again by next Friday.

Today…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Sunday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Thursday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass last evening measured NW winds of 10 knots over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo, and a new surge of NW flow up to 15 knots had reached to just north of La Paz bay. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed only a few, thin high clouds in our region, so we should see a significant thermal boost today as well. Model forecasts are in good agreement that an area of low pressure will form over Arizona on Saturday, and this will result in very weak background flow over BCS, with only light onshore breezes expected here. Surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific is then forecast to build back into the Baja Peninsula on Sunday and bring a new surge of north flow into the southern Sea of Cortez. The forecast for Monday is muddy, as model forecasts disagree on exactly where a ridge of high pressure will set up over the Baja Peninsula, but for now it looks likely that we’ll see enough north background flow continuing to give us another windy afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that north flow will increase significantly on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region from the Pacific. Long-range models show solid north flow will continue through at least Wednesday and possible through Thursday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were measured over the southern Sea of Cortez by a couple of satellite passes last evening, but most of the new model forecasts show there is still hope that we will see a relatively weak pulse of north background flow this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops show a few thin, high clouds streaming in from the west, but we should see ample sunshine to help trigger a significant thermal boost as well. As is usual in marginal background flow, the northern beaches may be the place to be, with lighter winds to the south. Models are in good agreement that the background north flow will increase on Friday, so chances are better that we will see a windy afternoon on all area beaches. Winds are forecast to again become light on Saturday as the surface pressure gradient weakens. It also looks like the cloudiest day of the week, so our local thermal will likely be significantly dampened as well. Model forecasts are in general agreement about the overall weather pattern from Sunday through Wednesday, with forecasts showing surface high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific gradually building eastward into the Baja Peninsula. There area some timing differences, but for now it looks like we will see solid north flow through the period.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph…lighter on southern beaches.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph

¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were measured by an Oceansat satellite pass last evening, and model forecasts show light east flow for today. A couple of the more reliable models show a relatively weak pulse of north flow for tomorrow, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a good thermal boost. Some thin, high clouds will return on Friday, but all of the model forecasts show sufficient north background flow to help trigger our wind machine. Saturday looks to be a down day at this point, as the surface pressure gradient weakens. Sunday may see a return of just enough north flow to bring us a windy afternoon, with similar conditions expected on Monday. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will build into the Baja Peninsula from the eastern Pacific on

• Tuesday, with north flow increasing.
• Today…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! While an Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured 10-15 knot NW winds east of Cerralvo, all of the latest numerical model forecasts show the overall background flow will diminish some today. That said, infrared satellite loops this morning showed clear skies over BCS, setting the stage for a possible strong local thermal. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR), which has a 3 kilometer horizontal resolution and is capable of at least partially resolving our local thermal, is forecasting a big thermal boost (super thermal…not a meteorological term but fun to say), with sustained winds into the low-mid 20s just offshore this afternoon. I’ve seen this model perform very well in similar situations, so I’ll go with it. Wednesday continues to look like a down day, as the surface pressure gradient becomes very weak over BCS. The forecast for Thursday and Friday is a low-confidence one at this point, as the model forecasts disagree on the strength of the background north flow. For now, a couple of the more reliable models are pushing me towards the go side, with just enough flow to give us kiteable days. Saturday looks to be a down day at this point, but long range model forecasts are showing a return of solid north flow on Sunday continuing into Monday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured solid 15 knot NW winds just east of Cerralvo. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will tighten over our region today, with background NW flow increasing. The bad news it that all of the latest model runs show a large west component to the flow, so expect wind-shadowed and gusty conditions, especially on the northern beaches. Sufficient background flow should last into Tuesday, and we should see the background flow veering to a more north direction, with better quality winds. Wednesday still looks like a down day as the background flow becomes very light. Models are starting to be in better agreement that a pulse of north flow will return on Thursday, and may last into Friday. Long-range forecasts are a bit muddy, but if an E-W oriented ridge of high pressure sets up just to our north as some suggest it will, we should see enough north flow combined with sunny skies to trigger our local wind machine through the weekend.
Today…Mostly sunny. North…northwest wind 18-22 mph and gusty, especially along northern beaches.

• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat pass last evening measured 15-20 knot NW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. Surface high pressure centered near Salt Lake City this morning will hold tight today, with solid north background flow continuing over BCS. We lucked out yesterday with the cloud cover, as significant breaks allowed for a strong thermal. The wind gauge at the campground (see graph below) recorded 10 minute average sustained winds of 18-20 mph from around 11:30 am until 2 pm, then a peak of 21-23 mph between 2 and 3:40 pm, with kiteable winds lasting until 5 pm. We may not be so fortunate today, as infrared satellite loops show thick, high cloud cover streaming in from the southwest. There is a glimmer of hope that we will see some partial late-morning clearing which should allow for at least a partial thermal boost, so I’ll be optimistic that we’ll sneak in another windy afternoon. The surface high centered far to our north is forecast to weaken on Tuesday, with background flow over BCS becoming light. Similar light flow is expected on Wednesday, then a relatively weak pulse of north wind, combined with full sunshine on Thursday, may bring us a windy afternoon. Light flow is forecast to return on Friday and last through Saturday.

• Today…Mostly cloudy. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellilte-derived NW winds of 5-10 knots were common over the southern Sea of Cortez last evening. All of the latest numerical model runs show surface high pressure centered just north of Salt Lake City this morning will send a new surge of north flow into BCS today, but the big wild-card for the next few days will be the thickness of high cloud cover and how much it will dampen our local thermal. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed substantial high clouds moving in from the southwest, but many of the model forecasts show some breaks in the cloud cover as well, so we may see at least a partial thermal boost. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday, and Monday, with the surface high to our north gradually weakening on Monday. Tuesday will be a transition day, but at this point it looks like just enough north flow will remain to combine with full sunshine and give us another windy afternoon. A light wind regime is then forecast to set up over BCS on Wednesday as the surface pressure gradient becomes very weak. We may see a slight bump in the north flow next Thursday but long-range model forecasts show light winds will likely return again on Friday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A couple of satellite passes late last evening measured light and variable winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. Today’s forecast is a low-confidence one, as the latest model forecasts show the background flow will be near or just below the lower threshold for fully activating our wind machine. Several of the more reliable models do show just enough north flow this afternoon, and with full sunshine returning, there is some room to be optimistic for marginally kiteable wind this afternoon, particularly on the northern beaches. The remainder of the forecast looks on track, with solid north flow returning on Saturday and lasting at least through Monday. Tuesday will see weaker north flow, but we may get one more windy day before we enter into a weak wind regime on Wednesday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.