Author: MasViento

¡Buenos dias! Mid-level clouds plagued us for much of the day yesterday, with a brief window of marginal wind around noon at Rasta, then another window for the patient folks who did not deflate their kites (not me) from around 3 to 4:30 or so. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed the thick, mid-level clouds continued to linger near Cabo, but all of the latest model forecasts show those clouds will not move into our region today. What will move in later today are thin, high clouds but they should allow for enough filtered sun to trigger our local thermal. A pass by the Oceansat satellite last evening measured 5-10 knot NW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, but all of the forecast models show the background north flow increasing enough this afternoon to give us a rideable day. Strong surface high pressure will then build into the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, with norte conditions developing here and likely lasting into Wednesday. Forecast models are now in good agreement that the strong surface high over the 4-corners area of the U.S. will rapidly weaken on Thursday, with our background flow becoming light. Light north flow will likely continue through Friday as the surface pressure gradient over BCS remains weak. Long-range model forecasts are in agreement that a ridge of high pressure over the interior west of the U.S. will be nudged southward on Saturday, and this will tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS, with solid north background flow returning. Pacific high pressure is then forecast to build into the western U.S. on Sunday, providing a reinforcing shot of north flow for our area.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Thursday…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The thickening high clouds that crept up from the south yesterday put a lid on our developing thermal, and while the wind gauge at the campground showed sustained winds peaked at 15-17 mph, it only lasted for about 1.5 hours (see nerd note below). Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed persistent thick, mid-level clouds over our area, but all of the latest model forecasts show these should begin to move off to the east around noon today and give us a window this afternoon for our local thermal to al least partially kick in. An Oceansat satellite pass last evening measured 10 knot NNW background flow over the southern Sea of Cortez but model forecasts show the background flow will weaken a bit this afternoon and approach the lower threshold for activating our local wind machine. Bottom line is it’ll be really close today. The latest model forecasts for Monday show sufficient north background flow and with mostly sunny skies expected, we should see a rideable afternoon. The norte is still on track to hit Tuesday, with typical first day norte gusty conditions expected. Low-end norte conditions should last though Wednesday, with better quality winds expected. The latest model forecasts for Thursday through Saturday are a hot mess, with models showing significant differences in the overall surface pressure pattern over our region. At this point it looks like we may see rideable wind each day, but confidence is very low.

• Today…Cloudy this morning, then becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Partly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

Nerd Note: Yesterday was a great example of how sensitive our local wind machine is to cloud cover. The wind gauge at the campground measured winds at 15-17 mph from just before noon to a little after 1 pm (see graph). Satellite images from just before noon showed a narrow clear slot in the high cloud shield right over us. That’s about the time that the winds peaked, but by around 1 pm the clouds had quickly moved back in and our winds dropped rapidly.

¡Buenos dias! Although an Oceansat pass last evening measured similar background NNW flow to what we’ve enjoyed the last several days, infrared satellite loops this morning showed a band of thickening high clouds was creeping northward into our area, and this will likely at least partially dampen our local thermal today. A couple of the model forecasts do show some thin spots may form this afternoon in the cloud shield, so I’ll be optimistic that we can get just enough filtered sunshine to give us a rideable day. Most of the high clouds should move off to the east on Sunday, and model forecasts show just enough north background flow will continue to bring us a windy afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Monday, but we may see a few more high clouds returning. Strong surface high pressure is forecast to build into the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday and send a surge of north wind down the Sea of Cortez, with norte conditions expected here. The norte should subside a bit on Wednesday, but we will still likely see another windy afternoon. Long-range model forecasts disagree on the amount of north background flow that will remain on Thursday and Friday, but a couple of them do show enough to continue our streak of windy days.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A pair of ASCAT satellites measured 10-15 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez last evening, and again, all of the most recent forecast model runs show similar background north flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops do show a few thin, high clouds streaming in from the west, but we should see ample sunshine to trigger our local thermal. The surface high centered far to our north over Utah will gradually weaken tomorrow, but enough background north flow will continue, and with only some thin, high clouds expected from time to time, we should add to this latest windy streak (see nerd note below). It now appears that a weak ridge of high pressure will form over the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday and last through Monday…with just enough north flow to give us rideable days. Strong high pressure is then forecast to build into the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, with norte conditions developing here. The norte may continue through next Wednesday, but long-range model forecasts show winds decreasing substantially on Thursday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

Nerd Note: So far it seems like this has been one of the best windy seasons in recent memory, so I did a quick check of the number of windy days so far. Using the metric of sustained winds of 15 mph or more for at least 1 hour, there were 22 days in November, or 73%! The trend has continued into December, with 100% of the days so far meeting those criteria. If the current extended range model forecasts hold, we could see kiteable winds through the 16th of December. Our current windy streak started on November 28th, so that would make 19 straight days!!