La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass last evening measured light and variable winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo.
The latest numerical model forecasts all show a relatively weak pulse of north flow over our area this afternoon, and a couple of them show enough background north flow to give us a rideable day, especially along northern beaches. Monday still looks like the surface pressure gradient will tighten over BCS and solid north flow will combine with sunny skies to give us a windy afternoon. While the north flow will weaken on Tuesday, the majority of model forecasts show enough should remain to once again help trigger our local wind machine. For the period Wednesday through Saturday, at this point there is much better agreement among the model forecasts that a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will produce just enough north background flow and combine with strong spring sunshine each day to bring us rideable wind through next weekend.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph…maybe more along northern beaches.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! There were no recent scatterometer satellite passes last evening, but there is good consensus among the most recent model forecasts that light background flow will continue today. At this point the forecast for Sunday is right on the edge, as a couple of the models show just enough north background flow returning, but several models show the north flow remaining below the lower threshold to fully activate our local wind machine…we’ll know more tomorrow morning. Models come into much better agreement on Monday as a significant surge of north flow reaches BCS, and with sunny skies continuing, we will likely see a windy afternoon. Sufficient north flow is forecast to continue through Tuesday, but model forecasts begin to differ significantly by Wednesday, with the American model (GFS) showing light background flow returning, while the European (ECMWF) shows consistent north flow continuing through next Friday. The Meteoblue model (based in Basil, Switzerland), which uses over 40 numerical models and AI to make its forecast, agrees with the ECMWF. I’ll be optimistic at this point and go with the European models, but confidence is low.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Winds only peaked at around 12-14 mph from noon until around1:30 pm at Rasta yesterday and remained very light to the south as the north pulse was weaker than forecast by a couple of the models (and me). Models are in unanimous agreement that we will only see light onshore breezes both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon as the background flow remains weak. A new pulse of north flow is forecast to work its way down the Sea of Cortez on Sunday, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a windy afternoon. At this point Monday looks to be the windiest day of the week as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten over BCS. Cracks begin to appear among the model forecasts on Tuesday as a broad storm system begins to affect the western U.S. For now it Tuesday looks to be a transition day to lighter flow, but the long-range model forecasts show an unusually large amount of variability from model to model on Wednesday and Thursday, so confidence at this point is very low.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The latest model forecasts show that the overall weather pattern for the next week or so will feature an east-west oriented surface high pressure system over the eastern Pacific and fast-moving storm systems tracking from west to east across the western U.S. As the storm systems move by far to our north, they will tend to nudge the axis of the surface high to the south of BCS, and this will create a pattern of a couple of windy days, then one or two down days. For today, several of the models show just enough north background flow will return to combine with sunny skies to bring us a windy afternoon. Light background flow will return on Friday as the axis of the surface high gets pushed to our south. Saturday looks to be a light wind day as well, then as the ridge of high pressure builds to our north, a new pulse of north wind should arrive on Sunday and peak on Monday. Long-range forecasts disagree on timing, but the general weather pattern would suggest that we’ll see the background flow weaken on Tuesday, then another pulse of north flow should arrive by next Wednesday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A satellite pass last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show light background flow will continue today. Thursday will likely see a brief pulse of north flow, as most of the models show the surface pressure gradient tightening slightly over our region. Light background flow is then forecast to return on Friday and last through Saturday, with only light onshore breezes expected each afternoon. Most of the models continue to be in good agreement that surface high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific will build into BCS on Sunday, and with a tightening surface pressure gradient, we should see a windy afternoon. Similar conditions should last through at least Monday, with a couple of the long-range model forecasts showing sufficient north background flow lasting through next Tuesday.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Unfortunately we will not see a repeat of that classic La Ventana magic yesterday, as a satellite pass around midnight measured NNW winds of only around 5 knots just east of Cerralvo, and all of the most recent model forecasts show light background flow today. The HRRR model does hint at a weak thermal bump on northern beaches today, but infrared satellite loops and model forecasts show substantial high clouds moving in by early to mid afternoon, and that will likely dampen our local thermal. If the thicker high clouds do hold off until later in the afternoon, it is possible the northern beaches could see a couple of hours of rideable wind. Wednesday still looks to be a down day as model forecasts show light background flow. While the latest model forecasts disagree, a couple of the more reliable ones continue to show a north pulse arriving Thursday, and with full sunshine expected, we should see a windy afternoon. The wind machine then turns off Friday and Saturday as the surface pressure gradient over BCS once again becomes very weak. Long-range model forecasts are in excellent agreement that a new pulse of north flow will arrive on Sunday and last into Monday.

• Today…Mostly sunny this morning then becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. Northeast wind 8-10 mph…possibly higher north beaches.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Although satellite passes last evening measured light west winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, all of the most recent model forecasts show a substantial north pulse will reach us today. Infrared satellite loops showed thin, high clouds streaming into BCS from the west, but we should see enough filtered sunshine to give us a substantial thermal bump as well. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to once again become weak on Tuesday, and most areas will see light winds, although the northern beaches may see a bit higher winds…we’ll know more tomorrow morning. Wednesday looks like a light onshore day, then several models are showing a slight increase in north flow on Thursday…maybe just enough to combine with full sunshine to give us a rideable day. Friday and Saturday will likely see a return of light winds, but long-range model forecasts show a slight increase on north flow again on Sunday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were measured over the southern Sea of Cortez by a satellite pass very early this morning, and the most recent numerical model forecasts all show light onshore flow for this afternoon. Models are still in good agreement that we will see a pulse of north flow on Monday, and with only some thin, high clouds at times, we should see a good thermal boost as well. The background flow will likely weaken again on Tuesday, but it will be close, and with full sunshine returning we could see a bonus day. Wednesday looks like another down day before a weak pulse of north wind arrives on Thursday. Long-range model forecasts show light winds returning again on Friday and possibly lasting through Saturday.

• Today…Morning high clouds, then becoming sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds at only around 5 knots just east of Cerralvo, and all of the most recent model forecasts show light background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed an extensive area of high clouds moving into BCS from the west, and model forecasts show significant high clouds will likely persist through much of the day. Sunday will likely see a return of sunny skies, however model forecasts show the background flow will continue to be weak. Models are in good agreement that a pulse of north flow will return on Monday and possibly last into Tuesday. There will likely be some high clouds from time to time as well, but enough filtered sun should make it through to help trigger at least a partial thermal boost both days. A return to light background flow is forecast for Wednesday, and with the exception of a slight chance for a slight bump on Thursday, it looks like light winds will last through at least next Friday.

• Today…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.