¡Buenos dias! Friday the 13th proved to be unlucky with regard to the wind, as the early promise of whitecaps around noon quickly fizzled (see nerd note below). An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight confirmed the arrival of a new surge of north wind, as widespread 15-20 knot NNW winds were measured over the southern Sea of Cortez. The latest model forecasts show that surface high pressure will build into the 4-corners region of the U.S. today, with solid north background flow continuing. There may be some west component to the wind today, and the typically wind-shadowed northern beaches will likely see gusty conditions. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed clear skies over our region, so our local thermal should begin to pull the stronger winds lurking just offshore more onshore by early afternoon. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will remain dominant over the western U.S. for the next several days…possibly into next weekend, with ample north background flow continuing here. Only a few patches of high cloud are forecast for the middle of next week, but otherwise we will likely see plenty of sunshine to help fuel our local wind machine.
- Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
Nerd Note: I had a brief conversation with a friend yesterday while waiting for the wind to increase just a bit more (didn’t happen), about how I attempt to convey uncertainty in the forecast, and how I verify the forecast each day. I put together a longer explanation later and I thought some of you might also be interested.
With regard to the MasViento forecast, I want to make sure you understand what goes into it and how I verify it so you don’t place too much faith in the exact forecast numbers. Days like today and yesterday (Thursday and Friday) that are right on the razor edge of our local wind machine kicking in or not are really a dice roll, and that’s why I write the narratives to give folks an idea of the uncertainties inherent in a deterministic forecast (the exact numbers I put out), which describes a probabilistic situation (one with a wide range of possible solutions). When it’s that close, it really could go either way. I mentioned different possible scenarios for both Thursday and Friday, and as fate would have it the forecasts would have verified much better if I had switched them (hindsight of course is 20/20). I verify the forecasts each day using the measurements at the campground: laventanaweather.com/mbsmart/ That particular website uses standard measurements of average wind and gusts (the weatherunderground site runs about 4 mph high due to not using the standard average time for sustained winds). I only use people’s ‘observations’ as a general guideline as everyone will have a fairly wide range of estimates of the same wind speed…it’s just human nature. Of course when there is some west component in the wind (like the first day of a norte), the winds will be very gusty near shore and the range I forecast is an expected average of a much bigger range. In that case I will explicitly put in the term gusty, and/or discuss it in the narrative. Hope this helps.
