La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! Although satellite passes last evening measured light west winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, all of the most recent model forecasts show a substantial north pulse will reach us today. Infrared satellite loops showed thin, high clouds streaming into BCS from the west, but we should see enough filtered sunshine to give us a substantial thermal bump as well. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to once again become weak on Tuesday, and most areas will see light winds, although the northern beaches may see a bit higher winds…we’ll know more tomorrow morning. Wednesday looks like a light onshore day, then several models are showing a slight increase in north flow on Thursday…maybe just enough to combine with full sunshine to give us a rideable day. Friday and Saturday will likely see a return of light winds, but long-range model forecasts show a slight increase on north flow again on Sunday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were measured over the southern Sea of Cortez by a satellite pass very early this morning, and the most recent numerical model forecasts all show light onshore flow for this afternoon. Models are still in good agreement that we will see a pulse of north flow on Monday, and with only some thin, high clouds at times, we should see a good thermal boost as well. The background flow will likely weaken again on Tuesday, but it will be close, and with full sunshine returning we could see a bonus day. Wednesday looks like another down day before a weak pulse of north wind arrives on Thursday. Long-range model forecasts show light winds returning again on Friday and possibly lasting through Saturday.

• Today…Morning high clouds, then becoming sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds at only around 5 knots just east of Cerralvo, and all of the most recent model forecasts show light background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed an extensive area of high clouds moving into BCS from the west, and model forecasts show significant high clouds will likely persist through much of the day. Sunday will likely see a return of sunny skies, however model forecasts show the background flow will continue to be weak. Models are in good agreement that a pulse of north flow will return on Monday and possibly last into Tuesday. There will likely be some high clouds from time to time as well, but enough filtered sun should make it through to help trigger at least a partial thermal boost both days. A return to light background flow is forecast for Wednesday, and with the exception of a slight chance for a slight bump on Thursday, it looks like light winds will last through at least next Friday.

• Today…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes late last evening confirmed that the norte had quickly subsided and the background NW flow had dropped to around 10 knots. While the background flow is forecast to continue to weaken this morning, several of the latest numerical model forecasts are showing just enough north flow will remain this afternoon to help trigger our local wind machine. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed some thin, high clouds streaming in from the southwest, but model forecasts indicate that we should see plenty of filtered sunshine this afternoon and that should be enough to bring us a thermal boost as well, particularly on the northern beaches. Marginal background north flow is expected on Saturday, but if we get enough thinning of the high cloud cover, we could see a bonus day on northern beaches…we’ll know more by tomorrow morning. At this point it looks like we will be right on the edge again on Sunday, as a very weak pulse of north flow reaches our area. Models are in better agreement that Monday will see a more substantial pulse of north wind, and with only some thin, high clouds expected, we should see a windy afternoon. While the north flow is expected to weaken on Tuesday, there may be just enough to give us one more windy afternoon. Long-range model forecasts are again showing a light wind regime setting up over BCS on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph…primarily on northern beaches.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph…maybe more on northern beaches.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A couple of late evening satellite passes measured NW winds of 25 knots near Cerralvo, and some area wind gauges recorded predawn gusts into the mid 20s. All of the latest forecast model runs show norte conditions will continue today, with a persistent west component bringing gusty, wind-shadowed conditions the northern beaches. Models are in good agreement that the background flow will rapidly diminish this evening into Friday, but it now appears that there may be just enough north flow and filtered sunshine to help jump start our local wind machine. Saturday still looks like a down day as the background flow becomes very light. A relatively weak pulse of north flow is still forecast to arrive on Sunday and continue into Monday, and it may be just enough to give us rideable days. A couple of the long-range model forecasts show marginally rideable winds are possible on Tuesday, then a light wind regime will likely return on Wednesday.

• Today…A few high clouds in the morning, then sunny. North wind 22-26 mph, but gusty and wind-shadowed on northern beaches.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes late last evening showed that the main push of the norte has arrived, with NNW winds of 25 knots measured just north of Cerralvo. Strong surface high pressure centered over Idaho this morning will keep a tight surface pressure gradient over BCS today with strong, gusty winds, some wind-shadowing on northern beaches, and a significant shorebreak. Model forecasts show the surface high moving southeastward on Thursday, with norte conditions likely continuing here. Friday will see a rapid transition to lighter background north flow, with only marginal conditions expected. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to continue to weaken on Saturday, with a down day looking likely. A couple of the models show a relatively weak pulse of north flow on Sunday and Monday, and depending on the thickness of high cloud cover, we may see just enough of a thermal bump to give us rideable days. Long-range model forecast show a return to light winds next Tuesday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North…northwest wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Several satellite passes last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. Model forecasts continue to show the leading edge of a developing norte will race down the Sea of Cortez today and will likely reach our area by mid afternoon, with winds shifting from east to north and rapidly increasing. The peak of the norte will hit on Wednesday, with strong, gusty winds and a significant developing shorebreak. The norte will ease a bit on Thursday, but we will still see another windy afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will rapidly weaken on Friday, leaving only a weak north remnant background flow. Saturday looks like a down day as the surface pressure gradient continues to weaken over BCS. Long- range model forecasts show a relatively weak pulse of north flow returns on Sunday and continues into Monday.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph becoming north and increasing to 20-24 mph by mid afternoon.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North…northwest wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured NW winds at 10-15 knots, but all of the most recent model forecasts show a rapid decrease of the background flow this morning, with winds falling below the lower threshold to fully activate our local wind machine. The HRRR model does show marginal winds of around 13 mph or so along northern beaches this afternoon, so some foilers and big kites may get a couple hours of rideable wind there before the easterlies shut down that party. Surface high pressure will begin to build into the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday and send a new surge of north flow down the Sea of Cortez. Winds will likely build steadily through the afternoon and continue into the early evening. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that a classic norte will develop on Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the interior west of the U.S. and helps further tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS. The norte will subside on Thursday, but solid north flow will continue, with a windy afternoon looking likely. The weather pattern will then transition into a light wind pattern, and long-range models show marginal background north flow at best from Friday through the upcoming weekend.

• Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph…up to 14 mph on northern beaches.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind increasing to 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North…northwest wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Our local wind machine was in overdrive yesterday, as the wind gauge at the campground recorded 10-minute sustained winds of 20-24 mph from 11:30 am until 1:30 pm, then winds peaked at around 26 mph with gusts into the mid 30s until around 3:00 pm. An ASCAT satellite pass last evening measured 15 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show the surface pressure gradient tightening a bit today with NNW background flow increasing. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed some very thin, high clouds streaming into BCS from the west, and although we may see increasing high clouds later this afternoon, we should see ample sunshine to bring us another good thermal boost. The latest windy stretch will come to a crashing halt on Monday as the surface pressure gradient becomes very weak and we see only light onshore breezes. Surface high pressure will begin building into the Baja Peninsula from the eastern Pacific on Tuesday, with north flow increasing through the afternoon. Models are in good agreement that reinforcing surface high pressure will then build into the interior west of the U.S. on Wednesday and create classic norte conditions here. The norte will likely subside on Thursday, then long-range model forecasts show light winds once again returning next Friday. A relatively weak pulse of north flow may reach us next Saturday, but at this point confidence is low.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind increasing to 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North…northwest wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes late last evening measured 15 knot winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show moderate to strong north…northwest background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated another sunny day ahead for our region, setting the stage for a big thermal boost. This latest windy streak will continue on Sunday, as model forecasts show surface high pressure building into the 4-corners region of the U.S., thereby keeping a tight surface pressure gradient in place over BCS. A progressive weather pattern will continue, as another storm system moves into California on Monday and nudges the surface high to our north southward, with light background flow returning here. As the storm system continues eastward on Tuesday, surface high pressure will again build into the interior west of the U.S. and send a new pulse of north flow down the Sea of Cortez. Long-range model forecasts are in excellent agreement that norte conditions will arrive on Wednesday, with typical gusty conditions. The norte will subside on Thursday, but solid north background flow will likely continue and with sunny skies expected we should see another windy afternoon. Yet another storm system will begin to affect the western U.S. on Friday and our winds will likely become light.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.

Nerd Note: For much of the afternoon yesterday, area wind graphs at Rasta Beach and the campground (see below) showed relatively steady winds of around 20-24 mph (note that the Rasta Beach gauge plots 1-minute sustained winds as opposed to the 10-minute average at the campground, so winds are typically 4-5 mph higher there). Then around 2:30 things started to get really weird. The solid NE flow at Rasta rapidly shifted to due north, and wind speeds dropped like a rock (personal observation). At the campground, winds increased dramatically at around 3 pm, then peaked with a wind gust of 41 mph at 3:20 pm… the highest wind gust of the season. A surge in the west component of the winds at Rasta was likely the cause of the dramatic change there, but I don’t have a good explanation of why the campground recorded such a high wind gust.