La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! A satellite pass last evening measured light and variable winds over much of the southern Sea of Cortez, however all of the latest numerical model forecasts show solid north to north-northwest background flow establishing itself by around midday today. Another sunny day is ahead, so we will see a strong thermal boost as well. The remainder of the forecast looks on track as model forecasts are in good agreement that we’ll see a light wind day on Monday, then north flow returns again Tuesday afternoon. Norte conditions still look likely on Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the western U.S., with solid north flow continuing through Thursday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Today is going to be one of the more interesting days of the season to watch unfold, as it is shaping up to be a classic battle between a fairly strong west to northwest background flow and our local thermal (see nerd note below). All of the latest numerical model forecasts show the east-west oriented ridge of high pressure that was located to our north yesterday and gave us that spectacular afternoon of steady north wind yesterday has been nudged to the south this morning by a storm system over California. This has resulted in the background flow becoming much more westerly, and model forecasts show a significant west component is likely to continue through today. That said, we will see full sunshine today, and with the strong March sun, we could see our local thermal overpower the west wind component and draw the winds onshore. It is going to be very, very close, so my best advice is to be ready. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the ridge of high pressure over BCS will move northward on Friday, with the background flow becoming more northerly here. Solid north flow if forecast to continue through the upcoming weekend, then rapidly diminish on Monday as another storm system moves into California. North flow is then forecast to return as early as Tuesday afternoon, then as as strong surface high builds into the western U.S. on Wednesday, long-range model forecasts show norte conditions developing here.

• Today…Sunny. North to northwest wind 16-20 mph(?).
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.

Nerd Note: Numerical weather prediction has seen spectacular advancements over the last 100 years, particularly in the last 70 years, and computer models now have the ability to resolve relatively small-scale weather phenomena. One such model, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR), run by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction in Washington, D.C., has a horizontal resolution of 3 kilometers and has the capacity to at least partially resolve some of the more important features which drive our local wind machine. Below are a series of graphics showing the HRRR forecasts for wind today over Ventana Bay. Notice the westerly component just before sunrise is shadowed by the Cacachilas Mountains to our west, with only light winds over the bay. By noon the local thermal has drawn much of the west component out of the background flow and the model shows solid north winds coming onshore. By 3 pm, the model forecast shows the background west flow overwhelming the local thermal and driving the north flow offshore. It’ll be interesting to watch how this actually plays out today.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured west winds at around 5 knots near Cerralvo, but all of the latest numerical model forecasts show a narrow ridge of high pressure will form to our north today and bring us a fresh pulse of north background flow. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed clear skies will again be the rule today, so we will see a good thermal bump as well. The forecast becomes a lot trickier tomorrow as a storm system tracks from west to east across far southern California and the northern Baja Peninsula and tends to nudge the ridge of high pressure located to our north southward. This will turn the background flow more westward, and it’ll be close to see if our strong March thermal will be enough to pull the winds onshore Wednesday afternoon. For now it looks like the southern beaches will have the best chance of seeing sideshore winds, with NNW wind-shadowed and gusty conditions likely on northern beaches. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the ridge of high pressure over BCS on Thursday will move northward again on Friday with solid north background flow returning to our region. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday, then a reinforcing shot of high pressure will build into the 4-corners region of the U.S. on Sunday and ensure another windy day here. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that rapid changes will take place on Monday, with another storm system impacting California and the background flow over BCS becoming weak. As the storm system far to our north continues moving eastward on Tuesday, Pacific high pressure will begin building back into the Baja Peninsula, with north flow possibly reaching us as early as Tuesday afternoon.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North…northwest wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The wind gauge at Rasta yesterday showed north winds of 12-14 mph from around 1:30-2:30, and some of us got a feeble few runs in before the dreaded easterlies shut it down. An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured light southerly winds east of Cerralvo, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show light onshore breezes will develop this afternoon. A surface low pressure system west of Ensenada this morning will move inland on Wednesday and allow a narrow ridge of high pressure to build into the central Baja Peninsula. This will bring north background flow back to our region, and with sunny skies expected, we will see a good thermal boost as well. Another storm system will affect California and the far northern Baja Peninsula on Thursday, and tend to nudge the surface ridge located just to our north a bit farther south. This will add a westerly component to the background flow on Thursday, but models show the background flow veering to a more northerly direction during the afternoon. Models are in excellent agreement that the large surface high over the eastern Pacific will build eastward into the northern Baja Peninsula on Friday, with increasing north background flow here. Solid north flow will likely continue through Saturday, then increase a bit on Sunday as a reinforcing shot of high pressure builds into the 4-corners region of the U.S. Long-range forecasts show north flow decreasing on Monday as another storm system moves into the western U.S. from the Pacific.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North…northwest wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured NW winds of 10-15 knot just east of Cerralvo, but all of the latest forecast model runs show the background NW flow will weaken substantially today and fall to near or just below the lower threshold to fully activate our local wind machine. It’ll be close, and with full sunshine expected, we may see rideable wind this afternoon especially on the northern beaches. Tuesday still looks like a light onshore day as the surface pressure gradient over BCS remains very weak. Surface high pressure is then forecast to build into the Baja Peninsula from the eastern Pacific on Wednesday, with north flow returning. It now appears that the ridge of high pressure will likely set up just far enough north of us so that north…northwest background flow will continue on Thursday. Models are in good agreement that the ridge will then remain firmly in place Friday through the upcoming weekend, with solid north flow continuing. There may be some thin, high cloud cover on Friday, but otherwise we will see lots of sun and good thermal boosts each day.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North…northwest wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

Buenos dias! The first day of the norte didn’t have quite the bite that I though it would, as 10 minute sustained winds at the campground yesterday peaked at 22 mph around noon then hovered around 20 mph for the remainder of the day. As predicted by the models the norte peaked overnight, and an evening ASCAT pass measured a large area of 25 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez from just north of La Paz northward to just north of Mulege, with 20 knot winds sampled just east of Cerralvo. Local wind gauges with clear western exposures were measuring occasional NW gusts into the mid 20s early this morning. The latest batch of model forecasts show the norte diminishing this afternoon, but moderate north flow will continue and combine with abundant sunshine to bring us a windy afternoon. Model forecasts are in good agreement that as a surface low approaches southern California on Monday the background flow here will fall to just below the threshold to fully activate our local wind machine. That said it’ll be close, and with full sunshine again expected, we may see a bonus day so best be prepared. Light onshore flow looks likely for Tuesday as the low far to our north moves onshore and the surface pressure gradient over BCS remains weak. Surface high pressure in the eastern Pacific is then forecast to build eastward into the Baja Peninsula on Wednesday and bring a fresh pulse of north flow to the southern Sea of Cortez. Another Pacific storm system will affect California on Thursday and tend to nudge the ridge of high pressure located just to our north southward a bit, and several of the forecast models show our background flow becoming northwest as as result. As the storm system far to our north tracks eastward into the central plains of the U.S. on Friday, surface high pressure from the eastern Pacific is once again forecast to build eastward into BCS with north flow returning and lasting into the weekend.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed patches of low clouds racing from north to south near Cerralvo, and this is likely the leading edge of a new surge of north background flow. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific will move eastward today and another surface high centered over Nevada will build southeastward towards the 4-corners region of the U.S. This squeeze play will create a very tight surface pressure gradient over BCS, with norte conditions developing by this afternoon. The norte is forecast to peak during the early morning hours of Sunday, with norte conditions likely lasting through Sunday afternoon. Monday will be a very different day, as a surface low pressure system approaches southern California causing the background flow here to fall to just below the threshold for fully activating our local wind machine. As the surface low moves inland over far southern California and northern Baja California on Tuesday (see nerd note below), the background flow over BCS will remain weak with only light onshore breezes expected during the afternoon. Models are in good agreement that an east-west oriented ridge of high pressure will then set up just to our north on Wednesday and bring us a return of north background wind. Long-range model forecasts show and active weather pattern continuing to our north, as another storm system impacts California and northern Baja California on Thursday and causes our winds to once again become light. Models show the storm system will then continue eastward on Friday and allow surface high pressure to build back into the Baja Peninsula, with north flow returning.

• Today…A few morning low clouds, then sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

Nerd Note: The next 7 days have the potential to bring some much-needed rain to areas of southern California and the northern Baja Peninsula where severe to extreme drought conditions exist. The first image below shows the forecast accumulated rainfall for the next 7 days, with some areas forecast to receive nearly 2 inches. The second image is a rough composite map showing the most recent drought assessment. Note that much of far southern California and far northern Baja California are in the extreme drought category.

¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were detected just east of Cerralvo around midnight by an Oceansat satellite pass, but all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show solid NNW background flow will become established over the southern Sea of Cortez by early this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed the extensive cloud cover we saw yesterday had moved off to the east, and all model forecasts show a sunny day ahead. As a result we will see a substantial thermal which should pull most of the residual west component out of the background flow this afternoon. Forecast models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient over BCS will tighten further on Saturday as surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific moves closer, and an area of high pressure builds into the southwestern U.S. The combined effect will likely produce norte conditions here, with typical gusty winds. Models show the norte continuing through Sunday as a ridge of high pressure extends from near the 4-corners region of the U.S. southwestward to just offshore of Ensenada. The latest model runs are in good agreement that the norte will come to an abrupt end Sunday evening as a storm system approaches southern California and the pressure gradient over BCS becomes weak, with only light winds expected on Monday. It now appears that our winds will remain light through Tuesday as the storm system to our north continues to produce light background flow over our region. Long-range model forecasts show Pacific high pressure building back into BCS on Wednesday, with north flow returning and possibly lasting through next Thursday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…A few morning low clouds, then sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday the wind gauge at the campground (see graph below) measured 10 minute average sustained winds of 18-22 mph from 11:40 am until 3:40 pm, with a peak of 23 mph from 1:10 pm until 1:30 pm. The maximum 10 second average gusts were near 29 mph from around 2-2:30 pm, but I did see instantaneous wind gusts measured into the low 30s. It’s hard to believe that after such a windy day that we will see a down day today, but winds rapidly decreased last evening, and an Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured west winds of only around 5 knots just east of Cerralvo. The latest numerical model forecasts are in unanimous agreement that we will see only light onshore breezes this afternoon as a storm system moves from west to east over the interior west of the U.S. and our background flow remains light. The overall weather pattern has shifted to a much more active one, with storm systems moving from west to east from the Pacific into the western U.S. about every 3 days or so. This will produce relatively rapid changes in our background flow over the next week, so get ready for a roller coaster ride of wind/no wind days. Friday will likely see a return of solid north background flow as the storm system far to our north moves far enough east to allow Pacific high pressure to build into the Baja Peninsula. A reinforcing shot of high pressure is then forecast to build into the 4-corners area of the U.S. on Saturday into Sunday, bringing norte conditions to our area. Models show the toggle switch will then turn to off on Monday as a storm system approaches southern California and our background flow again becomes light. Long-range model forecasts disagree on timing, but a couple of the more reliable ones show a return of solid north flow as early as Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into our region from the eastern Pacific. Solid north flow is then forecast to continue through at least Wednesday.

• Today…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.