La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 15 knot winds just east of Cerralvo, but all of the latest numerical model runs continue to insist that the ample north background flow we’ve enjoyed lately will rapidly weaken this morning and fall to levels just below what would normally trigger our local wind machine (see nerd note below). Another potential negative for today will be patches of high clouds which may at times partially dampen our local thermal. That said, it’ll be close…and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple hours of kiteable wind this afternoon especially on the northern beaches. Models are in excellent agreement that an E-W oriented trough of low pressure will linger over the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, with very light background flow over BCS. Surface high pressure will build back into the interior west of the U.S. on Wednesday and send a fresh pulse of north flow into the southern Sea of Cortez, and with full sunshine returning, we should see a good thermal boost as well. Thursday will be another nail-biter, as model forecasts show the background flow weakening and patchy high clouds moving in. Surface high pressure will begin building into the western U.S. on Friday, but it now appears that we’ll have to wait one more day for the next surge of north flow. The upcoming weekend looks good at this point, with ample north flow and only some thin patches of high clouds at times.

• Today…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

Nerd note: Several of you have asked about the minimum threshold of north background flow I use as part of the forecast process. I typically look at a point about halfway between the northern tip of Cerralvo and the Cacachilas Mountains (see graphic). If the model forecast background flow is at least 7 mph, AND we are expecting sunny skies, then it will likely be a go day. That said, there are at least 6 numerical models I look at, and they can vary substantially in their forecasts. If there is a general consensus, then it lends more confidence to the forecast. For example in the graphic below, today’s model forecasts all show the background flow below 7 mph, so it’s more likely that it’ll be a down day. In addition, infrared satellite loops and model forecasts show some patches of relatively thin, high cloud that could partially dampen our local thermal. Place your bets…

¡Buenos dias! Multiple satellite passes missed the southern Sea of Cortez last evening, but all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show moderate to strong north background flow will continue today. Surface high pressure centered just north of the 4-corners area of the U.S. this morning will begin to rapidly weaken this evening and by Monday all of the latest model runs show the background north flow falling below the minimum threshold to trigger our wind machine. The models are in good agreement that an area of low pressure will form over the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, with winds over BCS remaining light. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to build into the southwestern U.S. on Wednesday, with solid north flow returning to our region. The pulse of north flow will be short-lived however, as Thursday will likely be a marginal day with the background north flow forecast to weaken and hover right around the go/no go speed. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will build into the western U.S. on Friday, with moderate north flow returning to BCS. The high will likely remain nearly stationary through the following weekend, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a great stretch of windy days.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 10 knot WNW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, but all of the latest numerical model runs show surface high pressure will build into the interior west of the U.S. today, with the background flow over BCS becoming more northerly and increasing substantially this afternoon. Moderate to strong north flow is forecast to continue over our region on Sunday, and with sunny skies expected, we should see an added thermal boost as well. Models are in good agreement that the surface high far to our north will rapidly weaken on Monday, with north flow decreasing to near or below the lower threshold to trigger our local wind machine. At this point I’ll be optimistic and say we will have just enough remaining north background flow to combine with a mostly sunny afternoon and give us rideable conditions. A trough of low pressure is forecast to spread across the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, and this will create very light background flow over BCS, with only light onshore flow expected here. Surface high pressure is forecast to build back into the interior west of the U.S. on Wednesday, with increasing north flow over our area. Long-range model forecasts differ substantially, but some show just enough north background flow remaining to help trigger our wind machine into next Friday…stay tuned.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph and gusty.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Several satellite passes late last evening into the early morning measured 10 knot NW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and those measurements correlate well with the latest numerical model forecasts which predict similar wind speeds for today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed only a few thin, high clouds in our area, so we will see another good thermal boost this afternoon. Model forecasts continue to be in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will build into the western U.S. on Saturday and cause the surface pressure gradient to tighten over BCS. Low-end norte conditions are likely on Saturday with the usual gusty winds, particularly on the northern beaches. The norte should ease a bit on Sunday but model forecasts show solid north flow will continue as surface high pressure remains centered near the 4-corners area of U.S. Monday will see the background flow quickly weaken as models show a rapid transition to low pressure over the southwestern U.S. Light winds are expected on Tuesday as the trough of low pressure lingers to our north, then we will likely see a return of solid north flow on Wednesday…possibly lasting into next Thursday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph and gusty.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Wow!! For a time yesterday’s superthermal significantly exceeded my forecast of 16-20 mph. The gauge at the campground showed that while the 10 minute average wind speed was close for much of the afternoon, with winds of 18-22 mph from 12:30-3:30, a big surge occurred from around 1:20-2:00 pm with sustained winds reaching 24-26 mph and gusts up to 33 mph (see graph below). A series of scatterometer satellite passes measured 10-15 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez around midnight., and all of the latest model forecasts show solid north background flow will continue today. While we may not see another superthermal, infrared satellite loops early this morning showed another sunny day ahead, so our local thermal will likely be in peak form. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the wind party will continue into the upcoming weekend, as surface high pressure builds into the interior west of the U.S. and the surface pressure gradient tightens over BCS. While we may not see norte conditions with strong winds continuing overnight, sustained winds may reach into the mid 20 range both Saturday and Sunday during the afternoon. There will likely be some thin, high cloud cover at times, but we should see ample filtered sun to give us an added thermal boost as well. The background flow will weaken some by Monday, but enough should remain to give us another windy afternoon. Surface low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, with our background flow becoming light. The down time will likely be short, as long-range model forecasts show surface high pressure building back into the western U.S. on Wednesday with another surge of north flow reaching BCS.

Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Friday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening indicated that the position of an E-W oriented ridge of high pressure, key to our wind forecast for the next several days, was likely to our north near Mulege. The latest forecast models are in generally good agreement that our background flow this morning will transition from a west-northwest direction to a more northerly one by mid afternoon, and with sunny skies expected, our local thermal should be able to gradually pull the flow onshore. The ridge of high pressure is expected to hold firm through Friday, with ample north background flow expected and sunny skies giving us an added thermal boost each day. Model are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will then begin to build into the western U.S. on Saturday, and this will tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS and increase our background north flow significantly. Solid north flow is forecast to continue through Sunday, then diminish a bit on Monday. Long-range models are in good agreement that our background flow will become light on Tuesday as a broad area of low pressure forms over the southwestern U.S.

• Today…Sunny. Northwest wind becoming north and increasing to 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A satellite pass at around 2:30 this morning measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. The latest forecast models show light and variable winds will likely continue today, but we are still on track to see an increase in north flow as surface high pressure begins building into the Baja Peninsula on Wednesday. Solid north background flow will likely continue Thursday and Friday and the surface ridge of high pressure holds firm just to our north. Surface high pressure is then forecast to build into the interior west of the U.S. on Saturday and increase north flow over BCS. Sunday will also see moderate north flow continuing, with winds beginning to diminish on Monday.

• Today…Partly sunny. Light and variable wind.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes last evening measured northwest winds of around 5 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and model forecasts show the surface pressure gradient remaining very weak today with light background flow and only light onshore breezes expected. The overall weather picture for the next week remains on track, with Pacific high pressure forecast to begin building into the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday. The axis of the surface high will likely be just south of us on Tuesday, with a significant west component to the background flow. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the E-W oriented ridge of high pressure will move northward a bit on Wednesday, and this should help turn the background flow to a more northerly direction here. Similar conditions are forecast to continue Thursday and Friday, with sufficient north background flow and ample sunshine to help jump start our local wind machine. Long-range model forecasts indicate that surface high pressure will build into the western U.S. and give us an added boost of north flow on Saturday, with solid north flow and ample sunshine continuing through next weekend.

• Today…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Tuesday…Partly sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.