La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were measured over the southern Sea of Cortez by a couple of satellite passes last evening, but most of the new model forecasts show there is still hope that we will see a relatively weak pulse of north background flow this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops show a few thin, high clouds streaming in from the west, but we should see ample sunshine to help trigger a significant thermal boost as well. As is usual in marginal background flow, the northern beaches may be the place to be, with lighter winds to the south. Models are in good agreement that the background north flow will increase on Friday, so chances are better that we will see a windy afternoon on all area beaches. Winds are forecast to again become light on Saturday as the surface pressure gradient weakens. It also looks like the cloudiest day of the week, so our local thermal will likely be significantly dampened as well. Model forecasts are in general agreement about the overall weather pattern from Sunday through Wednesday, with forecasts showing surface high pressure centered over the eastern Pacific gradually building eastward into the Baja Peninsula. There area some timing differences, but for now it looks like we will see solid north flow through the period.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph…lighter on southern beaches.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph

¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were measured by an Oceansat satellite pass last evening, and model forecasts show light east flow for today. A couple of the more reliable models show a relatively weak pulse of north flow for tomorrow, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a good thermal boost. Some thin, high clouds will return on Friday, but all of the model forecasts show sufficient north background flow to help trigger our wind machine. Saturday looks to be a down day at this point, as the surface pressure gradient weakens. Sunday may see a return of just enough north flow to bring us a windy afternoon, with similar conditions expected on Monday. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will build into the Baja Peninsula from the eastern Pacific on

• Tuesday, with north flow increasing.
• Today…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! While an Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured 10-15 knot NW winds east of Cerralvo, all of the latest numerical model forecasts show the overall background flow will diminish some today. That said, infrared satellite loops this morning showed clear skies over BCS, setting the stage for a possible strong local thermal. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR), which has a 3 kilometer horizontal resolution and is capable of at least partially resolving our local thermal, is forecasting a big thermal boost (super thermal…not a meteorological term but fun to say), with sustained winds into the low-mid 20s just offshore this afternoon. I’ve seen this model perform very well in similar situations, so I’ll go with it. Wednesday continues to look like a down day, as the surface pressure gradient becomes very weak over BCS. The forecast for Thursday and Friday is a low-confidence one at this point, as the model forecasts disagree on the strength of the background north flow. For now, a couple of the more reliable models are pushing me towards the go side, with just enough flow to give us kiteable days. Saturday looks to be a down day at this point, but long range model forecasts are showing a return of solid north flow on Sunday continuing into Monday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured solid 15 knot NW winds just east of Cerralvo. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will tighten over our region today, with background NW flow increasing. The bad news it that all of the latest model runs show a large west component to the flow, so expect wind-shadowed and gusty conditions, especially on the northern beaches. Sufficient background flow should last into Tuesday, and we should see the background flow veering to a more north direction, with better quality winds. Wednesday still looks like a down day as the background flow becomes very light. Models are starting to be in better agreement that a pulse of north flow will return on Thursday, and may last into Friday. Long-range forecasts are a bit muddy, but if an E-W oriented ridge of high pressure sets up just to our north as some suggest it will, we should see enough north flow combined with sunny skies to trigger our local wind machine through the weekend.
Today…Mostly sunny. North…northwest wind 18-22 mph and gusty, especially along northern beaches.

• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat pass last evening measured 15-20 knot NW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. Surface high pressure centered near Salt Lake City this morning will hold tight today, with solid north background flow continuing over BCS. We lucked out yesterday with the cloud cover, as significant breaks allowed for a strong thermal. The wind gauge at the campground (see graph below) recorded 10 minute average sustained winds of 18-20 mph from around 11:30 am until 2 pm, then a peak of 21-23 mph between 2 and 3:40 pm, with kiteable winds lasting until 5 pm. We may not be so fortunate today, as infrared satellite loops show thick, high cloud cover streaming in from the southwest. There is a glimmer of hope that we will see some partial late-morning clearing which should allow for at least a partial thermal boost, so I’ll be optimistic that we’ll sneak in another windy afternoon. The surface high centered far to our north is forecast to weaken on Tuesday, with background flow over BCS becoming light. Similar light flow is expected on Wednesday, then a relatively weak pulse of north wind, combined with full sunshine on Thursday, may bring us a windy afternoon. Light flow is forecast to return on Friday and last through Saturday.

• Today…Mostly cloudy. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellilte-derived NW winds of 5-10 knots were common over the southern Sea of Cortez last evening. All of the latest numerical model runs show surface high pressure centered just north of Salt Lake City this morning will send a new surge of north flow into BCS today, but the big wild-card for the next few days will be the thickness of high cloud cover and how much it will dampen our local thermal. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed substantial high clouds moving in from the southwest, but many of the model forecasts show some breaks in the cloud cover as well, so we may see at least a partial thermal boost. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday, and Monday, with the surface high to our north gradually weakening on Monday. Tuesday will be a transition day, but at this point it looks like just enough north flow will remain to combine with full sunshine and give us another windy afternoon. A light wind regime is then forecast to set up over BCS on Wednesday as the surface pressure gradient becomes very weak. We may see a slight bump in the north flow next Thursday but long-range model forecasts show light winds will likely return again on Friday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A couple of satellite passes late last evening measured light and variable winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. Today’s forecast is a low-confidence one, as the latest model forecasts show the background flow will be near or just below the lower threshold for fully activating our wind machine. Several of the more reliable models do show just enough north flow this afternoon, and with full sunshine returning, there is some room to be optimistic for marginally kiteable wind this afternoon, particularly on the northern beaches. The remainder of the forecast looks on track, with solid north flow returning on Saturday and lasting at least through Monday. Tuesday will see weaker north flow, but we may get one more windy day before we enter into a weak wind regime on Wednesday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A Haiyang satellite pass around midnight measured NW winds around 10 knots over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show similar north background flow will continue today. While it now appears that the background flow will be sufficient to trigger our wind machine today, the big wild card will be the thickness of high cloud cover. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed an area of clearing over our area, but another patch of thick high clouds was lurking to the southwest and most model forecasts bring it close to or over us this afternoon. That said, there are some indications that some of the models are over-forecasting the extent of the high clouds, so I’ll be optimistic and forecast just enough sun to bring us at least a partial thermal boost this afternoon. Friday will be a close call as well, as several of the latest models now show the background north flow increasing a bit during the afternoon and full sunshine returning, so I’ll keep the positive vibes going and call for another kiteable day. The remainder of the forecast looks on track, as surface high pressure centered over northern Utah will remain locked in place from Saturday through Monday and bring ample north background flow to our region. While we will see periods of high clouds, there should be enough breaks in the cloud cover to allow for at least partial thermal boosts each day. The surface high is forecast to weaken on Tuesday, but just enough north flow should remain to couple with full sunshine and give us another windy afternoon. Long-range models forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will become very weak by next Wednesday, with only light onshore breezes expected.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT satellite pass late last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, but the latest model forecasts all show solid north background flow returning to our area this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops indicated clear skies over BCS, and with a sunny day ahead we will see our local thermal in fine form. The ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to weaken on Thursday, and with some high clouds moving in, we may see marginal winds at best. Surface high pressure will build into the western U.S. on Friday, but the models have again flipped, and now delay the onset of substantial north flow until Saturday. High pressure will remain locked in place over northern Utah through the upcoming weekend and into Monday, with ample north background flow expected. While there will likely be periods of high clouds Saturday through Monday, we should see enough filtered sunshine each day to give us at least a partial thermal boost. The surface high far to our north is then forecast to weaken on Tuesday, with north flow over BCS decreasing.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.