MasViento

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday was a feast for those who like it really windy, as the wind gauge at the campground (see images below) showed the 10 minute average winds ranging from 20-24 mph from just before noon until 4 pm, with winds peaking at 26 mph for around 30 minutes near 2 pm, with gusts well into the 30s. All of the most recent numerical model forecasts show the strong north background flow easing off some today, however there will still be ample north flow and with full sunshine we will definitely see a windy afternoon. No significant changes needed in the going forecast, as all of the latest forecast guidance shows surface high pressure locked-in to our north and solid north flow continuing into the upcoming weekend. Long-range model forecasts do show we will finally see the surface pressure gradient weaken early next week, with lighter winds likely on Monday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured 10-15 knot winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, but a reinforcing surge of north winds had made it as far south as Loreto, where 20-25 knot winds were measured. Forecast models show surface high pressure building into the 4-corners region of the U.S. by this afternoon, with the surface pressure gradient tightening over our region and the background north flow increasing. Models show the tight pressure gradient easing a bit on Tuesday, but solid north background flow will likely continue through the upcoming week and into the weekend, as surface high pressure remains locked over the interior west of the U.S. Sunny skies are also expected to continue through this week, with our local thermal giving us a boost each afternoon.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Sustained winds peaked at 22 mph with gusts to 29 mph at the campground yesterday (10 minute average wind speed for sustained winds, and 10 second average for gusts), and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show solid north background flow will continue today. The surface high pressure system centered over the western U.S. yesterday will get a reinforcing shot today, and long-range model forecasts show high pressure will remain firmly anchored to our north for the next week, with ample north flow continuing into next weekend. With sunny skies expected each day, our local thermal will give an added boost, and we should see another amazing stretch of windy afternoons this week.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Friday the 13th proved to be unlucky with regard to the wind, as the early promise of whitecaps around noon quickly fizzled (see nerd note below). An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight confirmed the arrival of a new surge of north wind, as widespread 15-20 knot NNW winds were measured over the southern Sea of Cortez. The latest model forecasts show that surface high pressure will build into the 4-corners region of the U.S. today, with solid north background flow continuing. There may be some west component to the wind today, and the typically wind-shadowed northern beaches will likely see gusty conditions. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed clear skies over our region, so our local thermal should begin to pull the stronger winds lurking just offshore more onshore by early afternoon. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will remain dominant over the western U.S. for the next several days…possibly into next weekend, with ample north background flow continuing here. Only a few patches of high cloud are forecast for the middle of next week, but otherwise we will likely see plenty of sunshine to help fuel our local wind machine.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

Nerd Note: I had a brief conversation with a friend yesterday while waiting for the wind to increase just a bit more (didn’t happen), about how I attempt to convey uncertainty in the forecast, and how I verify the forecast each day. I put together a longer explanation later and I thought some of you might also be interested.

With regard to the MasViento forecast, I want to make sure you understand what goes into it and how I verify it so you don’t place too much faith in the exact forecast numbers. Days like today and yesterday (Thursday and Friday) that are right on the razor edge of our local wind machine kicking in or not are really a dice roll, and that’s why I write the narratives to give folks an idea of the uncertainties inherent in a deterministic forecast (the exact numbers I put out), which describes a probabilistic situation (one with a wide range of possible solutions). When it’s that close, it really could go either way. I mentioned different possible scenarios for both Thursday and Friday, and as fate would have it the forecasts would have verified much better if I had switched them (hindsight of course is 20/20). I verify the forecasts each day using the measurements at the campground: laventanaweather.com/mbsmart/ That particular website uses standard measurements of average wind and gusts (the weatherunderground site runs about 4 mph high due to not using the standard average time for sustained winds). I only use people’s ‘observations’ as a general guideline as everyone will have a fairly wide range of estimates of the same wind speed…it’s just human nature. Of course when there is some west component in the wind (like the first day of a norte), the winds will be very gusty near shore and the range I forecast is an expected average of a much bigger range. In that case I will explicitly put in the term gusty, and/or discuss it in the narrative. Hope this helps.

¡Buenos dias! A partial pass by one of the ASCAT satellites last evening measured light and variable winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. The latest numerical model forecast runs show north background flow returning around noon, but the wind speed will be very near the minimum threshold to fully activate our local wind machine. It’ll be close, but as was the case yesterday, we may get lucky as see rideable winds for a few hours around midday. Surface high pressure will build into the 4-corners region of the U.S. tomorrow and push a new surge of north flow into our region, and with sunny skies expected, we will see a windy afternoon. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that a series of high pressure systems will move into the western U.S. over the next several days and keep solid north background flow over the southern Sea of Cortez. There may be some thin, high clouds on Tuesday, but otherwise our local thermal should be in fine form each day as well. Long-range models show a continuation of ample north background flow through next week.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satelllite pass last evening around midnight confirmed that the norte has died a quick death, with only 10-15 knot NNW winds measured near Cerralvo. All of the latest forecast model runs show the background flow will continue to decrease this morning, however one of the more reliable models…the ECMWF…shows a brief pulse of north wind this afternoon, with background flow increasing to just above the threshold for triggering our local wind machine. It’s a long shot, but with sunny skies expected, there is a slim chance of seeing rideable winds this afternoon. Friday will see similar conditions, and a couple of the forecast models do show just enough north background flow to give us a marginally windy afternoon. All of the forecast models are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will become established over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday and send a new surge of north wind into the southern Sea of Cortez. At this point the model forecasts are in unusually good agreement that solid north flow remain through next week.

• Today…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The crazy gusty winds yesterday peaked at 34 mph at the campground…the highest so far this season. Satellite-derived winds of 30 knots were widespread over the southern Sea of Cortez around midnight, with a few 35 knot readings north of Cerralvo. Model forecasts show the norte easing today, and with some mid-level clouds now forecast to creep into the area, it looks like our local winds will be much tamer than yesterday. The strong surface high centered over the 4-corners area of the U.S. this morning is forecast to weaken rapidly this evening and be replaced by low pressure on Thursday, with light winds the result here. Weak north flow will begin to return on Friday, but at this point it looks like it’ll be too weak to fully jump-start our local wind machine. Pacific high pressure will then build back into the western U.S. on Saturday and bring a fresh surge of north flow to BCS. Solid north flow is forecast to continue for several days as high pressure holds to our north, so we may see an extended period of solid wind through much of next week…stay tuned.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass last evening showed the leading edge of the next norte had made it to Mulege, and all of the latest model forecasts show the norte reaching us by midday. Winds will steadily increase through the afternoon, especially just offshore, with gusty conditions likely. The norte will likely persist through Wednesday, and with a sunny day expected, we should see a good thermal boost as well. Models are still showing an unusually rapid transition from strong high pressure to low pressure over the southwestern U.S. on Thursday, with light background flow the result here. Similar conditions are likely on Friday, with marginal winds expected at this point. Long-range models forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will build into the interior west of the U.S. on Saturday, leading to a tightening of the surface pressure gradient over BCS and solid north flow returning here. A similar weather pattern is forecast to hold into the beginning of next week.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Mid-level clouds plagued us for much of the day yesterday, with a brief window of marginal wind around noon at Rasta, then another window for the patient folks who did not deflate their kites (not me) from around 3 to 4:30 or so. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed the thick, mid-level clouds continued to linger near Cabo, but all of the latest model forecasts show those clouds will not move into our region today. What will move in later today are thin, high clouds but they should allow for enough filtered sun to trigger our local thermal. A pass by the Oceansat satellite last evening measured 5-10 knot NW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, but all of the forecast models show the background north flow increasing enough this afternoon to give us a rideable day. Strong surface high pressure will then build into the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, with norte conditions developing here and likely lasting into Wednesday. Forecast models are now in good agreement that the strong surface high over the 4-corners area of the U.S. will rapidly weaken on Thursday, with our background flow becoming light. Light north flow will likely continue through Friday as the surface pressure gradient over BCS remains weak. Long-range model forecasts are in agreement that a ridge of high pressure over the interior west of the U.S. will be nudged southward on Saturday, and this will tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS, with solid north background flow returning. Pacific high pressure is then forecast to build into the western U.S. on Sunday, providing a reinforcing shot of north flow for our area.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Thursday…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The thickening high clouds that crept up from the south yesterday put a lid on our developing thermal, and while the wind gauge at the campground showed sustained winds peaked at 15-17 mph, it only lasted for about 1.5 hours (see nerd note below). Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed persistent thick, mid-level clouds over our area, but all of the latest model forecasts show these should begin to move off to the east around noon today and give us a window this afternoon for our local thermal to al least partially kick in. An Oceansat satellite pass last evening measured 10 knot NNW background flow over the southern Sea of Cortez but model forecasts show the background flow will weaken a bit this afternoon and approach the lower threshold for activating our local wind machine. Bottom line is it’ll be really close today. The latest model forecasts for Monday show sufficient north background flow and with mostly sunny skies expected, we should see a rideable afternoon. The norte is still on track to hit Tuesday, with typical first day norte gusty conditions expected. Low-end norte conditions should last though Wednesday, with better quality winds expected. The latest model forecasts for Thursday through Saturday are a hot mess, with models showing significant differences in the overall surface pressure pattern over our region. At this point it looks like we may see rideable wind each day, but confidence is very low.

• Today…Cloudy this morning, then becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Partly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

Nerd Note: Yesterday was a great example of how sensitive our local wind machine is to cloud cover. The wind gauge at the campground measured winds at 15-17 mph from just before noon to a little after 1 pm (see graph). Satellite images from just before noon showed a narrow clear slot in the high cloud shield right over us. That’s about the time that the winds peaked, but by around 1 pm the clouds had quickly moved back in and our winds dropped rapidly.