MasViento

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass last evening measured 15 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo, and model forecasts show a ridge of high pressure centered just to our north will provide ample north background flow again today. We got lucky yesterday and saw some substantial thin spots in the high cloud cover, with 10 minute average sustained winds at the campground peaking at 17 to 19 mph. The strength of the thermal today will again be highly dependent on the thickness of the clouds. Models show some hints that we may see just enough filtered sun to at least partially activate our local thermal, so I’ll be optimistic. Models are in excellent agreement that Saturday will see a return of full sunshine, and with the surface pressure gradient forecast to tighten, all the ingredients are there for a windy afternoon. The subtropical jet will once again bring high clouds back into our region on Sunday, but with solid north background flow continuing, we should see a rideable day. Forecast models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will weaken over BCS on Monday, but on the other hand, models show only a few, thin high clouds so we should continue our windy streak. The surface pressure gradient is again forecast to tighten on Tuesday, and at this point it looks like we will see only some thin cloud cover so we should see a windy day. At this point model forecasts are in fairly good agreement that solid north background flow will continue on Wednesday and Thursday.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

SWAG…SWAG….SWAG! Our good friends Ken and Donna Freed have again created some amazing MasViento swag to help benefit No Mas Basura! Today we will be selling all-black t-shirts ($20) and super-cool baseball caps ($25) at the No Mas Basura recycling day on the west side (uphill) of the Farmers’ Market. ALL profits go to benefit the ongoing work of No Mas Basura.

In addition we will be selling tickets and t-shirts for the annual Baja Beach Blues concert on February 12th at Carol and Willie’s beachfront home. It’ll be another year of amazing talent, including Grammy award nominated Teresa James and Grammy award winner Terry Townson…all benefiting No Mas Basura.

¡Buenos dias! The forecast for today is a low-confidence one. An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 15 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and the new model forecasts show similar wind speeds continuing today. Infrared satellite loops show thick, high clouds moving in from the southwest early this morning, and if this continues it will put a serious damper on our local thermal. That said, there are a couple of forecast models that show some thinning of the cloud cover around midday, and IF we see any significant thin spots in the cloud cover, we could be off to the races so best be ready. While model forecasts generally agree that sufficient north background flow will last through the next week, it will be a cat and mouse game with high clouds, and that will be the major determining factor on our local thermal. Saturday looks to be the sunniest day, but otherwise high clouds could significantly dampen our local thermal and adjustments to the forecast are likely. Long-range forecasts are in agreement that the next big norte may be delayed until next Thursday…stay tuned.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph (?).
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Partly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 15 to 20 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. Surface high pressure centered over northern Utah this morning will remain in place through Thursday, resulting in ample north background flow continuing here. While we will see a continuation of solid north background flow, infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a broad band of high clouds streaming into BCS from the southwest. The high, thin cloud cover could partially dampen our local thermal, but at this point all of the most recent model forecasts show there should be enough thin spots in the cloud cover to allow for a substantial thermal boost both today and Thursday. While model forecasts show the surface high far to our north breaking down on Friday, a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to form just to our north and this should bring us continued ample north flow both Friday and Saturday. High clouds will again be a wild card each day through the next week, but at this point it looks like most days will see at least partial sunshine. Forecast models are in fairly good agreement that a large Canadian surface high will begin building southward into the U.S. on Sunday, but there has been a dramatic shift in how far southward into BCS the high will build, and the most recent model runs show no norte conditions here until possibly much later next week.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

Nerd Note: Many of you have commented on how windy this season has been. Here is a graph showing the normal percentage of days with winds of at least 15 mph (from our friends at ikitesurf) compared to the 2024/25 season so far.

I suspect a couple of reasons for the great season are the favorable overall weather pattern, with frequent strong high pressure over the western U.S., and the very dry desert due to summer/fall rain totals of around 2 inches or less.

¡Buenos dias! A couple of ASCAT satellite passes last evening measured 15-20 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure centered near Salt Lake City, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show this feature will remain nearly stationary through Thursday, with solid north background flow continuing. Today will likely be the last completely clear day, as models show some thin, high clouds will creep into BCS on Wednesday and be a recurring theme through next weekend. While at this point it looks like the clouds will remain thin, we’ll have to watch the satelllite imagery day to day to see if thicker clouds threaten to dampen our thermal…stay tuned. The background flow will weaken on Friday into Saturday, but models continue to show a weak ridge of high pressure forming just to our north, and this feature should be enough to keep our wind machine primed. Long-range model forecasts disagree on timing, but they do agree that an expansive surface high will drop out of Canada late this weekend or early next week and likely bring us norte conditions.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The next surge of north wind has arrived, as an Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured widespread 15 knot winds over the Sea of Cortez to the east of Cerralvo. The latest numerical model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure centered over Oregon this morning will move into northern Utah on Tuesday then remain nearly stationary through Thursday. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will remain fairly tight over BCS with solid north background flow expected. Some relatively thin, high clouds will begin to filter into our region on Wednesday and last into next weekend, but at this point it looks like we will see enough filtered sunshine to trigger our local thermal each day. Models show the surface high over Utah weakening on Friday, but a ridge of high pressure is forecast to form over the northern Baja Peninsula and keep ample north flow in the forecast Friday and Saturday. Long-range models are in good agreement that Pacific high pressure will build into the western U.S. on Sunday, with norte conditions possible here.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.

¡Buenos dias! Sustained winds yesterday (see nerd note below) peaked at around 20 mph, but a couple of satellite passes late last evening measured only light west winds over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo. Today’s forecast is very low confidence, as most of the model forecasts show the background flow will be near or below the threshold that typically will trigger our wind machine. There is a glimmer of hope that we may see a couple of hours of marginal wind during the late afternoon, but chances are slim. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that strong surface high pressure from the eastern Pacific will build into the interior west of the U.S. on Monday and push a new surge of north wind down the Sea of Cortez. The surface high is then forecast to remain nearly stationary through Thursday, with solid north background flow continuing here. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that while the surface high over the western U.S. will break down next Friday, a weak ridge of high pressure will form over the northern Baja Peninsula and give us just enough north flow to help trigger our wind machine through Saturday. The wild card for next week will begin on Wednesday, as models show increasing high clouds over BCS, but at this point it looks like enough filtered sun will make it through to trigger our local thermal each day.

• Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

Nerd Note: Sustained winds yesterday peaked at around 20 mph, but graphs from Weather Underground showed a very different day for the northern beaches versus the southern beaches. As a side note…sustained winds from Weather Underground tend to be 3-4 mph high on average as compared to this plot that I use for verification at the campground laventanaweather.com/mbsmart/

That said, looking at the plots from Rasta Beach (first graph) and the campground (second graph) show a very different day, as the sawtooth pattern at Rasta shows a very gusty, holey day (personally verified!!) while at the campground winds settled into a fairly steady pattern during the afternoon. A wind forecast plot from the HRRR model yesterday may explain why the two sites varied so drastically in wind quality. Note that the wind direction near and just north of Rasta was due north or even had a bit of west in it up towards Punta Gorda, while the winds to the south were more 15 to 20 degrees…NNE… (both directions verified at the respective sites). The north to NNW wind at the northern beaches was likely partially shadowed by nearby bluffs, while the NNE winds at the southern beaches were unobstructed from the bay.

¡Buenos dias! Several wind gauges yesterday measured wind gusts into the mid 30s, and in true norte form the gusty winds lasted through the night. An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight showed the broad extent of the norte and measured NNW winds of 20-25 knots over the entire southern Sea of Cortez. Strong surface high pressure was centered over Chihuahua early this morning with a ridge extending westward over the northern Baja Peninsula. All of the latest numerical model forecasts show the surface high weakening this afternoon, so we should see norte conditions subside later today. Models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will continue to weaken tonight, and some even show the background flow falling below the threshold for fully activating our wind machine. For now, it looks more likely that there will still be enough north flow to give us a rideable day tomorrow. Surface high pressure is once again forecast to build into the interior west of the U.S. on Monday and send a fresh surge of north flow into the Sea of Cortez. Solid north background flow will likely last through at least Thursday, and with only some thin, high clouds expected from time to time, we should see a good thermal boost each day. At this point long-range model forecasts show just enough north flow will remain on Friday to extend our windy streak.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A partial pass by one of the ASCAT satellites last evening showed the leading edge of the norte was near Mulege, and infrared satellite loops (see nerd note below) early this morning showed low clouds moving rapidly southward near Loreto. All of the most recent model forecasts show the norte reaching us by midday, with winds becoming strong and gusty this afternoon. The norte will subside on Saturday, but the surface pressure gradient will remain relatively tight and with full sunshine expected we will see another windy afternoon. The models are in relatively good agreement that surface high pressure will generally remain in control over the western U.S. over the next week, with ample north background flow in our region. While there will be some day-to-day fluctuations in wind speed, we should see rideable winds through Thursday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

Nerd Note: Weather satellites detect various frequencies of radiation emitted from the earth, and specific frequency ranges are used to help detect things such as clouds, fog, dust, smoke, and even fires. The tragic wildfires in Los Angeles over the past several days have been detected by numerous satellites, and below is an image from yesterday of channel 1 of one of the GOES satellites. This channel which detects radiation of 0.7 micrometers…or less than one millionth of a meter…is used to image smoke and dust. Note the enormous smoke plume from the LA fires. Note also the huge dust cloud over the northeastern Baja Peninsula…this is the leading edge of the norte which will reach us today.

¡Buenos dias! WNW winds of 15-20 knots were measured east of Cerralvo by an Oceansat satellite pass late last evening as broad-scale westerly flow continued around a surface low pressure system centered just northeast of Culiacan. Model forecasts are in good agreement that as the surface low moves eastward into Zacatecas this afternoon, surface high pressure from the Pacific will build into BCS and our winds will veer from WNW to N by mid afternoon. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a few thin, high clouds to our south, but we should see ample sunshine to trigger our local thermal and give us a good afternoon boost. The latest model forecasts show that strong surface high pressure centered over northern Idaho this morning will build rapidly southeastward into the southwestern U.S. by Friday morning with norte conditions developing here. The norte will likely subside on Saturday, but models show solid north background flow should continue through at least Monday. There may be some thicker high clouds on Monday and that could partially dampen our thermal, but otherwise we should see plenty of sunshine each day. Long-range models disagree on the strength of the north flow Tuesday and Wednesday, but the majority show solid north background flow should last into the middle of next week.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! No near real-time satellite wind observations were available this morning, but the latest forecast model runs all show west to southwest flow today. Surface low pressure centered just east of the Bahia de los Angeles this morning will move southeastward into Durango by Thursday morning, and this will allow eastern Pacific high pressure to build into the Baja Peninsula, with north…northwest background flow returning here. Strong surface high pressure centered near the Canadian border on Thursday is forecast to move rapidly southeastward into the southwestern U.S. on Friday, and this will significantly tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS with norte conditions likely here. The norte will subside a bit on Saturday, but solid north background flow will continue and with sunny skies expected, it should be a windy afternoon. Models show a few high clouds will begin to stream into our region on Sunday, but we will likely see ample sun, and with solid north background flow continuing, another windy day looks likely. At this point Monday looks to be a wild card, as long-range model forecasts show substantial high clouds will move in from the southwest and substantially dampen our local thermal. Clouds should thin on Tuesday and allow our local thermal to once again work its magic.

• Today…Mostly sunny, then becoming mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles possible this afternoon. West, southwest wind 12-14 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Mostly cloudy. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.