¡Buenos dias! While an Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured 10-15 knot NW winds east of Cerralvo, all of the latest numerical model forecasts show the overall background flow will diminish some today. That said, infrared satellite loops this morning showed clear skies over BCS, setting the stage for a possible strong local thermal. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR), which has a 3 kilometer horizontal resolution and is capable of at least partially resolving our local thermal, is forecasting a big thermal boost (super thermal…not a meteorological term but fun to say), with sustained winds into the low-mid 20s just offshore this afternoon. I’ve seen this model perform very well in similar situations, so I’ll go with it. Wednesday continues to look like a down day, as the surface pressure gradient becomes very weak over BCS. The forecast for Thursday and Friday is a low-confidence one at this point, as the model forecasts disagree on the strength of the background north flow. For now, a couple of the more reliable models are pushing me towards the go side, with just enough flow to give us kiteable days. Saturday looks to be a down day at this point, but long range model forecasts are showing a return of solid north flow on Sunday continuing into Monday.
- Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
- Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
- Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.