¡Buenos dias! Yesterday was a great example of just how sensitive our local wind machine is to the strength of the background flow. As I mentioned in yesterday’s discussion, the model forecasts showed winds just below the threshold to fully trigger it, but as those of us that were at Rasta yesterday know, while winds struggled to exceed the 10-12 mph range early in the afternoon, winds increased to around 16 mph from around 1:30-3:30, with higher winds farther north towards playa aguas calientes (personal observation). The wind gauge at the campground showed another light wind day, with only 10-12 mph sustained winds. Just a couple mph increase in the background flow can make a world of difference and sometimes bring us a great bonus day. The latest model forecasts are spreading the wind love to the entire bay today, as surface high pressure in the eastern Pacific builds into BCS. Ample background flow will likely last through Saturday, and with sunny skies expected, we should see another good thermal boost. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will become very weak over our region on Sunday, with light background flow the result. Similar conditions are expected on Monday, then surface high pressure will begin to build back into BCS on Tuesday, but at this point models show a significant west component to the wind. Long-range forecasts are in good agreement that ample north flow will return on Wednesday and may last through the following weekend.
- Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
- Monday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
- Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.