¡Buenos dias! Today is going to be one of the more interesting days of the season to watch unfold, as it is shaping up to be a classic battle between a fairly strong west to northwest background flow and our local thermal (see nerd note below). All of the latest numerical model forecasts show the east-west oriented ridge of high pressure that was located to our north yesterday and gave us that spectacular afternoon of steady north wind yesterday has been nudged to the south this morning by a storm system over California. This has resulted in the background flow becoming much more westerly, and model forecasts show a significant west component is likely to continue through today. That said, we will see full sunshine today, and with the strong March sun, we could see our local thermal overpower the west wind component and draw the winds onshore. It is going to be very, very close, so my best advice is to be ready. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the ridge of high pressure over BCS will move northward on Friday, with the background flow becoming more northerly here. Solid north flow if forecast to continue through the upcoming weekend, then rapidly diminish on Monday as another storm system moves into California. North flow is then forecast to return as early as Tuesday afternoon, then as as strong surface high builds into the western U.S. on Wednesday, long-range model forecasts show norte conditions developing here.
- Today…Sunny. North to northwest wind 16-20 mph(?).
- Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
- Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
- Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
- Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
Nerd Note: Numerical weather prediction has seen spectacular advancements over the last 100 years, particularly in the last 70 years, and computer models now have the ability to resolve relatively small-scale weather phenomena. One such model, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR), run by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction in Washington, D.C., has a horizontal resolution of 3 kilometers and has the capacity to at least partially resolve some of the more important features which drive our local wind machine. Below are a series of graphics showing the HRRR forecasts for wind today over Ventana Bay. Notice the westerly component just before sunrise is shadowed by the Cacachilas Mountains to our west, with only light winds over the bay. By noon the local thermal has drawn much of the west component out of the background flow and the model shows solid north winds coming onshore. By 3 pm, the model forecast shows the background west flow overwhelming the local thermal and driving the north flow offshore. It’ll be interesting to watch how this actually plays out today.
