¡Buenos dias! Light and variable winds were detected just east of Cerralvo around midnight by an Oceansat satellite pass, but all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show solid NNW background flow will become established over the southern Sea of Cortez by early this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed the extensive cloud cover we saw yesterday had moved off to the east, and all model forecasts show a sunny day ahead. As a result we will see a substantial thermal which should pull most of the residual west component out of the background flow this afternoon. Forecast models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient over BCS will tighten further on Saturday as surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific moves closer, and an area of high pressure builds into the southwestern U.S. The combined effect will likely produce norte conditions here, with typical gusty winds. Models show the norte continuing through Sunday as a ridge of high pressure extends from near the 4-corners region of the U.S. southwestward to just offshore of Ensenada. The latest model runs are in good agreement that the norte will come to an abrupt end Sunday evening as a storm system approaches southern California and the pressure gradient over BCS becomes weak, with only light winds expected on Monday. It now appears that our winds will remain light through Tuesday as the storm system to our north continues to produce light background flow over our region. Long-range model forecasts show Pacific high pressure building back into BCS on Wednesday, with north flow returning and possibly lasting through next Thursday.
- Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Saturday…A few morning low clouds, then sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
- Sunday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
- Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
- Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.